The Global Warming Archive

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Brazil sees sharp farm growth, despite environment

Reuters

By Raymond Colitt

BRASILIA (Reuters) - Brazil's farm sector will grow rapidly over the next decade and double some of its leading exports despite concerns over Amazon destruction and farmers' debt, the government said on Wednesday.

Critics say Brazil's rapidly expanding agricultural frontier has helped push farmers and loggers deeper into the world's largest rain forest, increasing destruction.

"We can still grow substantially without any deforestation," Agriculture Minister Reinhold Stephanes told a news conference after presenting the government's 10-year farm sector outlook.

Brazil's production of ethanol derived from sugar cane would grow by 113 percent and exports of the biofuel by 270 percent over the next decade, the report said.

Brazil is to surpass the United States as the number one soy exporter, with foreign sales rising 40 percent to 50.5 million tons by the 2016/17 harvest.

"We see good prospects for strong growth," Stephanes said.

The government last month banned the sale of farm products from illegally deforested areas in the Amazon in an attempt to reverse months of increasing destruction.

It will impose fines for buying or trading goods such as beef or soy produced on illegally deforested properties.

A new zoning law is in the making that would regulate farming according to environmentally sensitive regions.

Still, conservationists question whether the government has the resources to implement controls, even though it sent hundreds of additional police last month to the vast Amazon region, part of which is dominated by local political bosses, land speculators and gunmen.

Increased agricultural production would come from improved yields and increasing the use of already cleared land. Only 3 percent of Brazil's total land was being used for soy production, Stephanes said.

Beef exports, which have grown 104 percent since 1994, would expand by a further 62 percent over the coming decade, the agriculture ministry projected.

In order to expand its already dominant position in many commodities on the international market, Brazil would have to become more aggressive in coming years, Stephanes said.

That included additional lines of credit for farmers, who have lost some capital after two consecutive bad crop years, he said.

The government's projections assume world per capita income growth of 3.05 percent through 2016, up from 2.86 percent over the past decade.

(Editing by Christian Wiessner)

Chimpanzees May Build Their 'Cultures' In A Similar Way To Humans

From: University of Liverpool

Historically, scientists believed that behavioural differences between colonies of chimpanzees were due to variations in genetics. A team at Liverpool, however, has now discovered that variations in behaviour are down to chimpanzees migrating to other colonies, proving that they build their 'cultures' in a similar way to humans.

Primatologist, Dr Stephen Lycett, explains: "We knew there were behavioural differences between chimpanzee colonies, but nobody really knew why. It was assumed that young chimpanzees developed certain behavioural characteristics from the genes passed down from their parents, but there was no evidence to clearly support this. It was also thought that because behaviour was dictated by biology, chimpanzees did not have a 'culture' in the same way that humans do."

By looking at how chimpanzees prepare their food, the research team discovered that one colony used stone tools to crack nuts, whereas another colony used wooden tools as well as stone. They found these methods of preparing food have spread 4000km from East to West Africa over the more than 100,000 years. The team also found this true of other techniques, such as grooming. The research suggests that behavioural variety is due to how chimpanzees socialise rather than genetics as previously thought.

To investigate the theory further researchers built an evolutionary tree of chimpanzee behaviour in East and West Africa as well as a genetic family tree. They had expected to find that those with similar genetic patterns also shared behavioural similarities. Instead, they found that some chimpanzees shared behavioural similarities with those that were genetically different from them.

Dr Lycett, added: "This explains why some colonies, for example, use similar methods for finding food, adopting certain behaviour and adapting different methods to suit their own environment. In this sense we can see for the first time that culture exists in our closest relatives."

The research is published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA.

World's cheapest car - a climate change disaster

Fred Attewill and agencies
Guardian Unlimited

Crowds gather in New Delhi for the launch of the Nano, the Tata Group's 'people's car'. Photograph: Money Sharma/EPA

The world's cheapest car, a £1,290 four-seater designed to appeal to India's burgeoning middle classes, was unveiled in Delhi today as environmentalists warned of its drastic consequences for pollution.

Tata, the giant Indian company that designed and manufactured the Tata Nano, is marketing the car as a safer mode of transport for families who squeeze on to the back of motorbikes.

It will go on sale in India for 100,000 rupees but it will not be available in the Europe due to more stringent safety and emissions standards.

Speaking at the launch of the car today, the Tata chairman, Ratan Tata, said: "I observed families riding on two-wheelers - the father driving the scooter, his young kid standing in front of him, his wife seated behind him holding a little baby.

"It led me to wonder whether one could conceive of a safe, affordable, all-weather form of transport for such a family. Tata Motors' engineers and designers gave their all for about four years to realise this goal.

"Today, we indeed have a people's car which is affordable and yet built to meet safety requirements and emission norms, to be fuel efficient and low on emissions. We are happy to present the people's car to India and we hope it brings the joy, pride and utility of owning a car to many families who need personal mobility."

Tata, which hopes to buy Land Rover and Jaguar from Ford, also hopes also to create a "new market for cars which does not exist", making them accessible to India's booming middle classes recently made rich by an economy growing at around 9% a year.

This rapidly expanding market is potentially extremely lucrative, with the consultants McKinsey predicting the size of the Indian middle class will grow from 50 million now to 583 million by 2025.

The car has a 600cc engine in the boot, four doors and uses a lot of plastics as well as steel in its body frame. It is being manufactured at a new plant near Kolkata, with an initial capacity of 250,000 cars a year.

Tata believes it can eventually sell up to a million Nanos a year. Even though it is expected to be relatively fuel-efficient, such figures alarm environmentalists already concerned by the congestion and rising pollution levels in India's overcrowded cities.

"There is this mad rush towards lowering the prices to achieve mass affordability,' said Anumita Roychoudhury, of the Centre for Science and Environment in Delhi.

"If vehicle ownership increases very rapidly, we'll have a timebomb ticking away. When you lower the price that drastically, how will you be able to meet the safety and emissions standards? There are no clear answers yet."

Monday, January 7, 2008

Rare Winter Tornado hits Wisconsin

Tornado Touches Down In Kenosha County

Homes Damaged In Wheatland

KENOSHA COUNTY, Wis. -- At least one tornado touched down Kenosha County Monday.Sgt. Gil Benn of the Kenosha County Sheriff's Department told 12 News six to eight homes were severely damaged in the town of Wheatland area, and an unknown number of cars were blown off the road on Highway 50 near O.Aurora Medical Group facilities in the area treated 12 people for storm-related injuries, but none of the injuries was major.

Of four treated in Kenosha, three were in good condition and one in fair condition. The hospital in Burlington had five patients, all with minor injuries, while the center in Elkhorn had three patients with minor injuries.Authorities told 12 News reporter Colleen Henry they are trying to evacuate the area around Highway 50 and 352nd Avenue because of gas leaks. They are also trying to find out if there are any injured people.We Energies spokesman Brian Manthey said 1,700 customers in Wheatland are without power, and 4,000 customers in the city of Kenosha don't have power.

Paul Nevill

He said if anyone sees a downed power line, they should call 800-662-4797.Benn said that the sheriff's department has established a command post at Highways 45 and 50.Kenosha County Sheriff David Beth advised people to stay inside and avoid driving if possible because of downed power lines.Beth has activated the county's emergency operation center.If you live in Kenosha County and need to report damage, you can call 262-605-7926.Baden said there are reports of debris falling from the sky near Sturtevant.WISN 12 News reporter Nick Bohr was in Racine County and reported extremely heavy rain around Caledonia at 4:30 p.m. An earlier warning for Walworth and Rock counties has expired.Jurors in the Mark Jensen trial going on in Elkhorn had to be moved to the basement in the middle of testimony Monday afternoon.

Paul Nevill

At one point, Rock, Walworth, Kenosha and Racine counties had been under tornado warnings.A confirmed tornado was also spotted in Boone County, Ill., and the National Weather Service in Illinois confirmed there was considerable damage in that section of Northern Illinois.Both Baden and WeatherWatch Meteorologist Sally Severson said they can't believe they are seeing tornado warnings this early in January.Fog advisories remained in effect until 11 p.m. Monday.It hit 63 degrees Monday in Milwaukee, which contributed to the tornadoes. That is a record temperature.Copyright 2008 by WISN.com

Saturday, January 5, 2008

California snowpack low, showing less water supply

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - The snowpack in the Sierra Mountains of California is 60 percent of normal, but rain and snow expected in the next few days will raise that figure, the California Department of Water Resources said in its first snow survey of the season issued late Thursday.

Snow water is an important factor for determining the coming year's water supply for hydroelectric generation, as well as the reservoir level for the state and local water supply. California gets more than 17 percent of its power from hydroelectric generation, according to the California Energy Commission.

The CDWR's survey was conducted on Thursday.

Friday, stormy weather in northern California felled power lines and caused power outages affecting more than 100,000 customers.

That storm and others to follow it in the next several days will bring much-needed snowfall that will raise California's snowpack toward normal, said Arthur Hinojosa, chief of the CDWR's hydrology branch

At least five feet of snow are forecast to fall in northern California over the next several days in the higher elevations of the Sierra Mountains, CDWR said.

Sierra snow levels are expected to begin at 6,000 feet and drop to below 4,000 feet through the weekend with another weaker storm to arrive early next week, Hinojosa said.

"The pending storms should provide the state with a much needed helping of snow," said Hinojosa. "We hope to get close to the January average precipitation for the Northern Sierra over the next week."

This January should be an abundant contrast to January 2007 when extremely dry conditions led to a much smaller than normal snowpack.

"The surveys are particularly significant this year because last year's snowpack yielded only 30 percent of the normal water content," said the CDWR.

For now, the CDWR said, reservoirs are low, as shown by a 55 percent of normal reading at Lake Oroville, which has a capacity to hold 3.5 million acre feet of water.

(Reporting by Bernie Woodall; editing by Jim Marshall)

EU considers carbon tariff

By Gerard Wynn

LONDON (Reuters) - The European Commission is debating whether to push for a carbon tariff on imports from countries that do not tackle their greenhouse gas emissions, as part of climate change proposals due out this month.

Supporters of the measure say it would level the playing field for European companies facing tougher domestic emissions penalties. The new rules would be part of a raft of post-2012 proposals covering issues including national emissions targets and clean energy subsidies.

Unlike the European Union, neither China, India nor the United States have yet agreed to binding emissions reductions.

The idea of imposing some kind of tariff on goods imported from countries with less strict controls on greenhouse gases was first put forward by former French President Jacques Chirac.

But the plan has run into opposition from European Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson who has said it would be hard to implement and could lead to trade disputes.

A preliminary draft, seen by Reuters, says companies importing goods into the 27-nation European Union from countries that do not similarly restrict greenhouse gas emissions would have to buy EU emissions permits.

A Commission official confirmed that the carbon charge issue was still under consideration, despite opposition.

"It's very much debated," the official said. "It's not solved yet."

The measure, which needs the backing of EU governments, would be equivalent to a carbon tariff, taxing imports based on the price of emissions permits in Europe and the amount of greenhouse gases produced in the manufacture of the goods outside the EU.

UNILATERAL TARGETS

The European Union says it is a leader on climate change and is alone in pushing for tough, unilateral emissions-cutting targets, saying it will cut greenhouse gases by a fifth by 2020 versus 1990 levels.

France, other EU countries and energy-intensive industries in Europe, such as its steel sector, want to avoid further losses of competitiveness against producers in China and other emerging economies as well as rivals in the United States.

European companies will face tougher penalties from 2013 under the EU's Emissions Trading Scheme. Participants already have to buy emissions permits above a certain quota that they get for free, and the Commission will cut that quota from 2013.

The preliminary draft seen by Reuters said that from 2013 electricity generators would get for free half the permits that they receive now and other companies would get 90 percent.

German financial newspaper Handelsblatt reported on Friday that overall the European Commission would auction 60 percent of all emissions permits from 2013, compared with a maximum of 10 percent now and the rest given out free.

The final draft may yet be changed, the Commission official said. It is due to be discussed by senior officials over the next two weeks leading up to publication on January 23.

After that it is up to Slovenia, which holds the rotating EU presidency, to set a timetable for discussion by EU leaders.

Scientists warn the Sai Gon River is dying

Vietnam News, Vietnam

The Sai Gon River is being killed by waste water discharged from industrial zones and the pursuit of aquaculture. — VNA/VNS Photo Thanh Phan

HCM City — The Sai Gon River that provides water for HCM City’s almost 10 million people is dying.

Its killer is the waste water discharged from industrial zones and the pursuit of aquaculture, scientists at a seminar held to discuss the protection of the river agreed.

Many reports tabled at the HCM City meeting showed that high amounts of manganese, iron, ammonia, coliform and oil are the major pollutants.

A study by HCM City University of Technology Professor Nguyen Thi Van Ha showed the amount of manganese and iron in the river was higher than the norm of potable water.

The amount of manganese at the Tan Hiep pumping station from where water is supplied to the city, was measured at 0.2mg per litre, double that permissible.

Tan Hiep pumping station director Bui Thanh Giang said he was worried about the fall in water quality and the increase in the amount of ammonia since 2004.

"Previously, the amount rose and fell with the tide," he said.

But now it was always high.

"The quality of the river water has abnormally changed making it more difficult to treat," he said.

The indicator of dissolved oxygen, DO, in the river is lower than that required.

A study by the HCM City Environment Protection Department’s Dr Nguyen Dinh Tuan revealed that the DO ratio was just 2.8-4/7mg per litre compared with a norm of more than 6mg per litre.

The pollution in the Sai Gon River basin was the most serious, Dr Tuan said.

Binh Duong Natural Resources and Environment director Vo Thi Ngoc Hanh said the province’s 11 industrial zones discharged between 1,200 cu.m and 5,600cu.m of waste water into the river basin each day.

Another 45.000cu.m of waste water was discharged by other producers.

Toxic waste water from paper production totalled 7,700cu.m; weaving and dying – 4,200cu.m and rubber processing – 9,600cu.m every day.

The daily discharge from animal breading alone totalled 24,500cu.m.

Tay Ninh Province and HCM City have not yet published figures for the discharge of industrial waste water into the river.

The seminar was told that coliform, a bacteria normally found in the colons of humans and animals but with the potential to become a serious contaminant when found in food or water, and oil spill had become serious pollutants.

The amount of coliform caused by aqua culture was 220 times the norm.

Viet Nam’s regulations for potable water require that it be free of oil but oil pollution in the Sai Gon River is increasing at a rate of 0.023 to 0.090mg per litre.

Water and Environment Technology Institute director Dr Lam Minh Triet, said: "The pollution in Sai Gon River is not only threatening the clean water supply for the HCM City’s people but also the sustainable socio-economic development of HCM City, Tay Ninh and Binh Duong provinces."

HCM City, Tay Ninh and Binh Duong administrators signed an agreement to protect the Sai Gon River in November 2006.

But the three local governments had yet to act apart from installing three stations to test water quality.

Action pledged

However, the natural resources and environment departments of HCM City and Binh Duong and Tay Ninh provinces have pledged to strictly control the waste and water discharged into the river.

HCM City Natural Resources and Environment Department deputy director Nguyen Van Phuoc says the three administrations have studied the sources of the waste and the activities that create the waste substances.

The HCM City department has imposed strict sanctions to production units whose activities pollute the river, he says.

But the pollution will not fall if waste water discharged in Binh Duong and Tay Ninh Provinces is not stopped.

Measures to protect the water quality of the Sai Gon River are part of a two-year plan introduced last month.

The plan will begin with action to eliminate pollution from the part of the river that is used to supply the Tan Hiep pumping station by March.

Plans for the protection and management of the water in the Sai Gon River were now necessary, Dr Triet said.

State management agencies and local governments should invest properly in ensuring its survival.

"If there’s no action, the Sai Gon River will become a dead river," he warned.

The 107km-long Sai Gon River crosses Tay Ninh Province and Binh Duong Provinces and flows through HCM City.

It provides water for daily life; irrigation, aqua culture, industry, transport and tourism. — VNS

Friday, January 4, 2008

Burning biofuels may be worse than coal and oil, say experts

Guardian, UK

Scientists point to cost in biodiversity and farmland
Razing tropical forests 'will increase carbon'

- Alok Jha, science correspondent
- The Guardian,
- Friday January 4 2008

Using biofuels made from corn, sugar cane and soy could have a greater environmental impact than burning fossil fuels, according to experts. Although the fuels themselves emit fewer greenhouse gases, they all have higher costs in terms of biodiversity loss and destruction of farmland.

The problems of climate change and the rising cost of oil have led to a race to develop environmentally-friendly biofuels, such as palm oil or ethanol derived from corn and sugar cane. The EU has proposed that 10% of all fuel used in transport should come from biofuels by 2020 and the emerging global market is expected to be worth billions of dollars a year.

But the new fuels have attracted controversy. "Regardless of how effective sugar cane is for producing ethanol, its benefits quickly diminish if carbon-rich tropical forests are being razed to make the sugar cane fields, thereby causing vast greenhouse-gas emission increases," Jörn Scharlemann and William Laurance, of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama, write in Science today.

"Such comparisons become even more lopsided if the full environmental benefits of tropical forests - for example, for biodiversity conservation, hydrological functioning, and soil protection - are included."

Efforts to work out which crops are most environmentally friendly have, until now, focused only on the amount of greenhouse gases a fuel emits when it is burned. Scharlemann and Laurance highlighted a more comprehensive method, developed by Rainer Zah of the Empa Research Institute in Switzerland, that can take total environmental impacts - such as loss of forests and farmland and effects on biodiversity - into account.

In a study of 26 biofuels the Swiss method showed that 21 fuels reduced greenhouse-gas emissions by more than 30% compared with gasoline when burned. But almost half of the biofuels, a total of 12, had greater total environmental impacts than fossil fuels. These included economically-significant fuels such as US corn ethanol, Brazilian sugar cane ethanol and soy diesel, and Malaysian palm-oil diesel. Biofuels that fared best were those produced from waste products such as recycled cooking oil, as well as ethanol from grass or wood.

Scharlemann and Laurance also pointed to "perverse" government initiatives that had resulted in unintended environmental impacts. In the US, for example, farmers have been offered incentives to shift from growing soy to growing corn for biofuels. "This is helping to drive up global soy prices, which in turn amplifies economic incentives to destroy Amazonian forests and Brazilian tropical savannas for soy production."

They added: "The findings highlight the enormous differences in costs and benefits among different biofuels. There is a clear need to consider more than just energy and greenhouse gas emissions when evaluating different biofuels and to pursue new biofuel crops and technologies."

Andy Tait, campaign manager at Greenpeace, said: "We're already bought into mandatory targets for the use of biofuels with very little thought of what the environmental impacts will be. This study further confirms that there are serious risks associated with first generation biofuels, particularly from corn, soya and palm oil."

He said that the biofuel technology had been oversold by industry and politicians. "It's clear that what government and industry are trying to do is find a neat, drop-in solution that allows people to continue business as usual.

"If you're looking at the emissions from the transport sector, the first thing you need to look at is fuel efficiency and massively increasing it. That needs to come before you even get to the point of discussing which biofuels might be good or bad."

Australia: This drought may never break

Sidney Morning Herald, Australia
Richard Macey

Latest related coverage

IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation's most senior weather experts warned yesterday.

"Perhaps we should call it our new climate," said the Bureau of Meteorology's head of climate analysis, David Jones.

He was speaking after the release of statistics showing that last year was the hottest on record in NSW, Victoria, South Australia and the ACT.

NSW's mean temperature was 1.13 degrees above average. "That is a very substantial anomaly," Dr Jones said. "It's equivalent to moving NSW 150 kilometres closer to the equator."

It was the 11th year in a row NSW and the Murray-Darling Basin had experienced above normal temperatures. Sydney's nights were its warmest since records were first kept 149 years ago.

"There is absolutely no debate that Australia is warming," said Dr Jones. "It is very easy to see … it is happening before our eyes."

The only uncertainty now was whether the changing pattern was "85 per cent, 95 per cent or 100 per cent the result of the enhanced greenhouse effect".

"There is a debate in the climate community, after … close to 12 years of drought, whether this is something permanent. Certainly, in terms of temperature, that seems to be our reality, and that there is no turning back.

"Last year climate change became very evident in south-eastern Australia, with South Australia, NSW, Victoria, the ACT and the Murray-Darling Basin all setting temperature records by a very large margin," he said.

Some areas were "getting closer to 1.5 to 2 degrees above what we were seeing during early parts of the 20th century."

Australia as a whole had a mean temperature 0.67 degrees above average last year, making it the nation's sixth-warmest year.

NSW and the Murray-Darling Basin experienced their seventh consecutive year of below-average rain. Dr Jones said the statewide rain statistics would have looked even worse had it not been for heavy falls along the coast.

Sydney had its wettest year since 1998, receiving 1499 millimetres, well above the long-term average of 1215. While much of it was coastal, rain that did fall across the state fell at the wrong time for farmers, soaked into drought-parched soils or evaporated during scorching days.#

Widespread falls across NSW in June were followed by very dry spells in August, September and October.

"Very good rainfall in December across south-eastern Australia has been followed, since about Boxing Day, by quite extreme heat in Victoria, southern NSW and most of southern Western Australia," Dr Jones said.

Sydney had its stormiest year since 1963, with 33 thunderstorms, compared with the historic average of 28.

The highest temperature recorded in NSW last year was 46 degrees, at Ivanhoe on January 11. Charlotte Pass shivered through the state's coldest night when the mercury dipped to minus 11 on July 23.

Meanwhile, the weather bureau has warned that Sydney beaches may be closed again today and tomorrow, with heavy seas likely to pound the NSW coast.

The bureau's Rob Webb said a large low pressure system off south-east Queensland should produce waves up to four metres high in deep water.

"As they get closer to the shore they will become quite dangerous," he said.

First-ever study to link increased mortality specifically to carbon dioxide emissions

From: Stanford University

A Stanford scientist has spelled out for the first time the direct links between increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and increases in human mortality, using a state-of-the-art computer model of the atmosphere that incorporates scores of physical and chemical environmental processes. The new findings, to be published in Geophysical Research Letters, come to light just after the Environmental Protection Agency’s recent ruling against states setting specific emission standards for this greenhouse gas based in part on the lack of data showing the link between carbon dioxide emissions and their health effects.

While it has long been known that carbon dioxide emissions contribute to climate change, the new study details how for each increase of one degree Celsius caused by carbon dioxide, the resulting air pollution would lead annually to about a thousand additional deaths and many more cases of respiratory illness and asthma in the United States, according to the paper by Mark Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford. Worldwide, upward of 20,000 air-pollution-related deaths per year per degree Celsius may be due to this greenhouse gas.

“This is a cause and effect relationship, not just a correlation,” said Jacobson of his study, which on Dec. 24 was accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters. “The study is the first specifically to isolate carbon dioxide’s effect from that of other global-warming agents and to find quantitatively that chemical and meteorological changes due to carbon dioxide itself increase mortality due to increased ozone, particles and carcinogens in the air.”

Jacobson said that the research has particular implications for California. This study finds that the effects of carbon dioxide’s warming are most significant where the pollution is already severe. Given that California is home to six of the 10 U.S. cities with the worst air quality, the state is likely to bear an increasingly disproportionate burden of death if no new restrictions are placed on carbon dioxide emissions.

On Dec. 19, the Environmental Protection Agency denied California and 16 other states a waiver that would have allowed the states to set their own emission standards for carbon dioxide, which are not currently regulated. The EPA denied the waiver partly on the grounds that no special circumstances existed to warrant an exception for the states.

Stephen L. Johnson, the EPA administrator, was widely quoted as saying that California’s petition was denied because the state had failed to prove the “extraordinary and compelling conditions” required to qualify for a waiver. While previous published research has focused on the global effect on pollution—but not health—of all the greenhouse gases combined, the EPA noted that, under the Clean Air Act, it has to be shown that there is a reasonable anticipation of a specific pollutant endangering public health in the United States for the agency to regulate that pollutant.

Jacobson’s paper offers concrete evidence that California is facing a particularly dire situation if carbon dioxide emissions increase. “With six of the 10 most polluted cities in the nation being in California, that alone creates a special circumstance for the state,” he said, explaining that the health-related effects of carbon dioxide emissions are most pronounced in areas that already have significant pollution. As such, increased warming due to carbon dioxide will worsen people’s health in those cities at a much faster clip than elsewhere in the nation.

According to Jacobson, more than 30 percent of the 1,000 excess deaths (mean death rate value) due to each degree Celsius increase caused by carbon dioxide occurred in California, which has a population of about 12 percent of the United States. This indicates a much higher effect of carbon dioxide-induced warming on California health than that of the nation as a whole.

Jacobson added that much of the population of the United States already has been directly affected by climate change through the air they have inhaled over the last few decades and that, of course, the health effects would grow worse if temperatures continue to rise.

Jacobson’s work stands apart from previous research in that it uses a computer model of the atmosphere that takes into account many feedbacks between climate change and air pollution not considered in previous studies. Developed by Jacobson over the last 18 years, it is considered by many to be the most complex and complete atmospheric model worldwide. It incorporates principles of gas and particle emissions and transport, gas chemistry, particle production and evolution, ocean processes, soil processes, and the atmospheric effects of rain, winds, sunlight, heat and clouds, among other factors.

For this study, Jacobson used the computer model to determine the amounts of ozone and airborne particles that result from temperature increases, caused by increases in carbon dioxide emissions. Ozone causes and worsens respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses, emphysema and asthma, and many published studies have associated increased ozone with higher mortality. “[Ozone] is a very corrosive gas, it erodes rubber and statues,” Jacobson said. “It cracks tires. So you can imagine what it does to your lungs in high enough concentrations.” Particles are responsible for cardiovascular and respiratory illness and asthma.

Jacobson arrived at his results of the impact of carbon dioxide globally and, at higher resolution, over the United States by modeling the changes that would occur when all current human and natural gas and particle emissions were considered versus considering all such emissions except human-emitted carbon dioxide.

Jacobson simultaneously calculated the effects of increasing temperatures on pollution. He observed two important effects:

Higher temperatures due to carbon dioxide increased the chemical rate of ozone production in urban areas

Increased water vapor due to carbon dioxide-induced higher temperatures boosted chemical ozone production even more in urban areas.

Interestingly, neither effect was so important under the low pollution conditions typical of rural regions, though other factors, such as higher organic gas emissions from vegetation, affected ozone in low-pollution areas. Higher emissions of organic gases also increased the quantity of particles in the air, as organic gases can chemically react to form particles.

And in general, where there was an increase in water vapor, particles that were present became more deadly, as they swelled from absorption of water. “That added moisture allows other gases to dissolve in the particles—certain acid gases, like nitric acid, sulfuric acid and hydrochloric acid,” Jacobson said. That increases the toxicity of the particles, which are already a harmful component of air pollution.

Jacobson also found that air temperatures rose more rapidly due to carbon dioxide than did ground temperatures, changing the vertical temperature profile, which decreased pollution dispersion, thereby concentrating particles near where they formed.

In the final stage of the study, Jacobson used the computer model to factor in the spatially varying population of the United States with the health effects that have been demonstrated to be associated with the aforementioned pollutants.

“The simulations accounted for the changes in ozone and particles through chemistry, transport, clouds, emissions and other processes that affect pollution,” Jacobson said. “Carbon dioxide definitely caused these changes, because that was the only input that was varied.”

“Ultimately, you inhale a greater abundance of deleterious chemicals due to carbon dioxide and the climate change associated with it, and the link appears quite solid,” he said. “The logical next step is to reduce carbon dioxide: That would reduce its warming effect and improve the health of people in the U.S. and around the world who are currently suffering from air pollution health problems associated with it.”

2008 to be in top 10 warmest years say forecasters

By Jeremy Lovell

LONDON (Reuters) - 2008 will be slightly cooler than recent years globally but will still be among the top 10 warmest years on record since 1850 and should not be seen as a sign global warming was on the wane, British forecasters said.

The Met Office and experts at the University of East Anglia on Thursday said global average temperatures this year would be 0.37 of a degree Celsius above the long-term 1961-1990 average of 14 degrees and be the coolest since 2000.

They said the forecast took into account the annual Pacific Ocean La Nina weather phenomenon which was expected to be particularly strong this year and which would limit the warming trend.

It also took account of rising atmospheric concentrations of so-called greenhouse gases, solar variations and natural changes in the ocean currents.

"The fact that 2008 is forecast to be cooler than any of the last seven years does not mean that global warming has gone away," said Phil Jones, director of climate research at UEA.

"What matters is the underlying rate of warming - the period 2001-2007 with an average of 0.44 degree C above the 1961-90 average was 0.21 degree C warmer than corresponding values for the period 1991-2000."

La Nina and its opposite El Nino ocean-atmosphere phenomenon have strong influences on global temperatures. La Nina reduces the sea surface temperature by around 0.5 degrees Celsius while El Nino has the opposite effect.

"Phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina have a significant influence on global surface temperature and the current strong La Nina will act to limit temperatures in 2008," said Chris Folland from the Met Office Hadley Centre.

"However mean temperature is still expected to be significantly warmer than in 2000, when a similar strength La Nina pegged temperatures to 0.24 degree C above the 1961-90 average. Sharply renewed warming is likely once La Nina declines," he added.

The current La Nina is now the strongest since 1999-2000. The lag between La Nina and the full global surface temperature response means that the cooling effect is expected to be a little greater in 2008 than it was during 2007.

The World Meteorological Organisation said last month there were indications that the 10 years from 1998 to 2007 were the hottest decade on record.

The Met Office Hadley Centre said the top 11 warmest years have all occurred in the last 13.

(Editing by Matthew Jones)

California to get walloped by snow, wind, rain

Story Highlights
NEW: 10 feet of snow possible in California mountains this weekend
NEW: Wind gusts could reach 145 mph, forecasters say
NEW: Kern County could get more rain than all of 2007
Flash-flood watches in effect in areas stripped by fires

(CNN) -- More than 10 feet of snow could fall on California mountains by Sunday and winds could reach the strength of an extremely strong hurricane as powerful winter storms move through the state.

Workers fill sandbags in Malibu, California, Thursday as residents prepare for potential mudslides.

"Travel is not advised in the mountain areas this weekend. It could be a life-threatening situation for you," CNN meteorologist Jacqui Jeras said Friday.

"The combination of heavy snow and powerful winds will likely cause frequent whiteout conditions at the highest elevations," National Weather Service forecasters said. "Travel over the higher passes will be very difficult, if not impossible, at times between Friday evening and Saturday morning."

Winds in the mountains could gust to 145 mph, forecasters said, the strength of a Category 4 hurricane. A Category 4 can inflict extreme damage.

In Mammoth Lakes in the eastern Sierra Nevada, locals stocked up on supplies, waiting more than an hour in line at the grocery store, resident Barbara Sholle told The Associated Press.

Even in lower elevations, gusts could reach 60 mph, the National Weather Service said. "Be alert for flying debris," the service warned. "Secure all doors and windows and stay indoors if possible."

At 3:30 a.m. PT Friday, wind gusts of 44 mph were recorded at Redding in the northern part of the state.

Up to 10 inches of precipitation was forecast for lower elevations.

Sacramento could see as much as 3 inches of rain Friday, CNN affiliate KCRA reported.

In Kern County, forecasters said that more rain could fall this weekend than fell in all of 2007, the county's driest year since 1961, CNN affiliate KERO reported.

In Southern California, forecasters warned it could be the most significant rainfall since January 2005. Flash-flood watches were in effect around Los Angeles and San Diego, and the possibility of mudslides loomed for hillsides scorched bare by wildfires last year.

Authorities advised homeowners in those areas to have plenty of sandbags on hand and watch for signs of flooding, The AP reported.

In Orange County, the Conservation Corps on Thursday was placing gravel-filled bags along an area burned last fall, according to AP.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ordered the state Office of Emergency Services to prepare for the bad weather.

"The state is expecting a powerful series of storms that could produce blizzard conditions in the higher elevations of the Sierra, with wind gusts of more than 100 mph and 8 to 10 feet of snow forecast at above 7,000 feet," a news release from Schwarzenegger's office said.

The weather disrupted air traffic Thursday. Flights into San Francisco were delayed more than two hours Thursday, affecting air traffic throughout the country, the Federal Aviation Administration said. Shorter delays were reported in Los Angeles.

In addition to the wind, rain and snow, the storm will bring high surf and coastal flooding, forecasters said. Ocean tides could swell up to 30 feet, prompting the Coast Guard to warn boaters not to venture out of port, AP reported. E-mail to a friend